Saturday’s game at Trojan Arena has the Troy Trojans (10-5, 3-1 Sun Belt) going head to head against the Arkansas State Red Wolves (11-5, 2-2 Sun Belt) at 4:33 PM ET (on January 11). Our computer prediction projects a narrow 72-71 win for Troy, so it should be a competitive matchup.

According to our computer prediction, Troy should cover the spread, which is currently listed at 1.5. The two teams are projected to go under the 143.5 over/under.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 4:33 PM ET
• TV: ESPN+
• Live stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Troy, Alabama
• Venue: Trojan Arena
• Line: Troy -1.5
• Point total: 143.5
• Moneyline (to win): Troy -128, Arkansas State +104

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Troy 72, Arkansas State 71

Spread & Total Prediction for Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Pick ATS: Troy (-1.5)
• Pick OU: Under (143.5)

Troy has compiled an 8-5-0 record against the spread this season, while Arkansas State is 6-9-0. The Trojans have gone over the point total in six games, while Red Wolves games have gone over seven times. The two teams score 151.9 points per game, 8.4 more points than this matchup’s total. Troy is 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its past 10 contests, while Arkansas State has gone 4-6 against the spread and 6-4 overall.

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Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans outscore opponents by 7.8 points per game (scoring 73.7 points per game to rank 229th in college basketball while giving up 65.9 per contest to rank 51st in college basketball) and have a +116 scoring differential overall.
• Troy wins the rebound battle by 6.1 boards on average. It collects 34.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 101st in college basketball, while its opponents grab 28.1 per outing.
• Troy knocks down 6.7 three-pointers per game (281st in college basketball) at a 28.6% rate (349th in college basketball), compared to the 6.6 its opponents make while shooting 32.8% from beyond the arc.
• The Trojans average 93.1 points per 100 possessions on offense (245th in college basketball), and allow 83.4 points per 100 possessions (30th in college basketball).
• Troy and its opponents have been relatively even in the turnover battle. The Trojans commit 14.7 per game (349th in college basketball) and force 13.9 (49th in college basketball action).

Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves are outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per game, with a +119 scoring differential overall. They put up 78.2 points per game (109th in college basketball) and give up 70.8 per contest (169th in college basketball).
• Arkansas State records 37.4 rebounds per game (17th in college basketball), compared to the 36.4 of its opponents.
• Arkansas State knocks down 9.4 three-pointers per game (55th in college basketball) while shooting 31.5% from deep (292nd in college basketball). It is making 2.6 more threes than its opponents, who drain 6.8 per game at 31.1%.
• Arkansas State has won the turnover battle on average this season, committing 10.6 per game (87th in college basketball) while forcing 12.6 (131st in college basketball).

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