WASHINGTON (AP) — Medicare is in better shape because of President Barack Obama’s sweeping health care overhaul and will stay afloat a dozen years longer than earlier projected, trustees forecast Thursday. But that depends on cuts in care that the system’s top analyst says are highly doubtful.

The annual report by the trustees who oversee Medicare and Social Security, led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, gives backers of the new health care law evidence of a positive impact on government entitlement programs, but it also undercuts the findings with a host of caveats.

In what amounted to a dissenting opinion, top Medicare actuary Richard Foster warned that the report’s financial projections “do not represent a reasonable expectation” for the hospital fund for America’s elderly.